predictions in 2011

So every year I try and throw my hat in the ring of amateur prognosticators and posit what is going to happen in tech in the upcoming year. The following are my guesses (some wilder than others) as to what will happen in 2011.
1. Facebook growth slows, they hit 650M users by 4th quarter of 2011.
They’ve been growing so fast, that unless they get major inroads in India, Russia, Brazil, and China, they are not going to be able to sustain that growth. BRIC is the key to fb growth in 2011. I’d expect them to be able to get another 50-75M users from all the other countries out there, but to get that extra 75M they have to come from those 4 countries.
Likelihood: Very Likely
2. WordPress ecosystem grows up
Automattic is sitting on a potential gold mine of revenue from the ecosystem surrounding their tools. With 25M wordpress.com blogs, and another 25M installs of wordpress self-hosted elsewhere, you’re talking 50M+ users out there (though many users likely have multiple blogs, and many are inactive). The marketplace for tools has already proven itself through premium theme sites like woothemes (which pulled in $4M+ in 2010). We’ll see many services and shops spring up to try to cater to this market as wordpress becomes a more commonly used Content Management System. To control this marketplace though, Automattic will need to get people to buy stuff and process the transactions ala Apple. Back of napkin math tells me $50-75M in ecosystem revenue this year.
Likelihood: Very Likely
3. The first Youtube millionaire emerges
There are tons of youtubers out there who are generating TONS of views on their videos and making decent coin from the YT revenue sharing. However I can see someone finding the correct balance of product placement, ad sharing, and quality content that gets them the 100-200M views they need to get close to grossing 7 figures from their YT channels. (I also don’t think it will be iJustine)
Likelihood: tossup
4. Apple’s Mac App Store does $1B in gross sales in first year
Assuming the average app price will be in the $15 range, we’re looking at 70M apps downloaded and installed. I feel adoption of this might be slower than we think, mainly due to OS fragmentation, and lots of people running old versions of OSX, especially if Snow Leopard is required to use the store.
Likelihood: Bet money on this one
5. Apple gives away Lion for free or less than $30
Why give away Lion? Well chances are the Mac App Store would work best on Lion (most iOS like experience). This would also entice lots of users to upgrade as well.
Likelihood: Very likely
6. Twitter hits 200M users.
They’ve been hovering around the 150M range for a while it seems. I can see them hitting 200M if they introduce a chinese partnership of some sort, but kids don’t care for it, and I don’t see that changing.
Likelihood: Very likely
7. Fox sells off Myspace for LESS than it bought it for
Not the colossal loss that AOL took on Bebo, but it will be significantly less than the billions they thought they were going to cash out of it. Wouldn’t be surprised if one of their former executives who has raised tons of $ for their buyout firms gets involved. (not entirely sold on this one though)
Likelihood: Long shot – not sure if they are willing to take the ego hit.
8. Groupon goes on a buying binge & hits $3B in gross sales.
The sales figure is going to be hard to verify as they are still private. Rumors were they were close to an annual $2B run rate in late 2010, so $3B seems feasible in 2011. How do they get there? Buying their way into new markets, snatching up lots of little competitors cheaply.
Likelihood: VERY likely
9. Facebook credits expand beyond facebook
Think about it. They become a socially backed wallet with 150M mobile devices already in use. Why not let people buy merchandise w/credits? Bump credits to a friend? No one else has that same reach on so many mobile devices in the US/CA/EU.
Likelihood: Better than 50% chance.
10. Google reboots android marketplace
Google is going to need to reboot the marketplace to improve the ui, experience, and filter out spam more. Look for this around Q2 2011. We’ll also see the quality apps start earning more money from their app purchases. Android apps won’t be as profitable as iOS apps until late (q4) 2011 or early 2012 though. Look for this marketplace reboot right before iphone 4S or iphone 5 comes out next june.
Likelihood: Better than 50% chance.
So what do you think will happen in 2011?

LIQUOR ADDICTED

Consumption of alcohol at regular interval is a dangerous habit. If a person starts doing so regularly he is said to be alcohol addict. Such persons are at the usual habit to take more liquor at home as well as at travel. They do not like other food except liquor. Without consumption of liquor at frequent intervals their day to day life will not move. The nervous and the stamina are brought down by regular consumption of alcoholic drinks. After getting addicted with the liquor consumption a person cannot leave the habit immediately but by gradually. To come out from such habit treatment for liquor addiction is essential in a particular center. Even if they think strongly to get rid of the habit they cannot withstand on the issue for a longer period. If they happen to see anybody using alcohol and moving near an alcohol shop their attention is immediately drawn towards the consumption of alcohol.

The basic reason for such depth of bad habit is due to strong addiction towards the consumption of alcohol regularly. The thoughts and will power are damaged on seeing a liquor shop. Those persons cannot control themselves and get relieved from such bad habit. Person having such habit are abused daily by their children as well their wife. Generally men are consuming alcohol at unlimited level even at public place. The situation of consumption of alcohol is worst and some persons started dancing and delivering filthy words at street. All the family members of such person are ashamed of such activities and they feel very bad every day of such person’s activities. The addicted persons do not know what they are doing at that situation. After the symptoms of alcohol are vanished from their body some people are realizing their activities as bad. But the realization does not last long till the person happen to see a liquor shop. On the next day the condition of such person may be worse than previous day. The same chain of action is continued till he is treated in an anti alcohol center.

Many alcohol treatment centers are there around the world. Anybody can locate the treatment center and move for treatment. Person addicted with alcoholic habits should consult a doctor first of his condition. By getting proper advice from a doctor a person can move to any alcohol treatment center which matches his needs. Almost all the alcohol treatment centers are taking due care to the severe patient also and start their own procedure to cure the addicted person. The treatment for liquor addicted person is done gradually by observing all activities of the affected person.

PERFECT MATCH (PUTO and DINUGUAN)

If you are Filipino, then you would know what Dinuguan is. :)

Dinuguan is one Filipino dish that is made up of pig’s intestines and blood (if I’m not mistaken) well, of course, Filipinos are careful in cooking this, just to make sure that it is clean and still healthy to eat. :)

My mom even uses vinegar and coco milk to add some flavor and lessen the after taste. I had my share over dinner and boy, I love it. :)

By the way, this is commonly consumed with our favorite rice bun or puto.

How about you? Have you eaten Dinuguan before? How was the experience?

MANGYAN TRIBES IN MINDORO

Mindoro
     Capital : Mamburao
     Area : 5,879.8 sq. km.
     Population : 282,593

LOCATION

Occidental Mindoro is the western part of the island of Mindoro, south of Batangas. It is bounded on the north by the Calavite Passage, on the east by Oriental Mindoro, on the west by ApoEast Pass, and on the south by the Mindoro Strait.

THE LAND

Occidental Mindoro consists of high rolling mountains in the east. To the west are coastal plains where the towns are situated. Numerous rivers flow from these mountain ranges: Pagbahan and  amburao-Matamayor in the north, Mompong and Amnay in the center, and Caguray and Busuanga in the south. The climate is dry from November to April and wet during the rest of the year. The province lies in the path of destructive typhoons.

A BRIEF HISTORY

Mindoro, formerly called Mait, was known to Chinese traders even before the coming of the Spanish. In 15 70, the Spanish began to explore the island and named it "Mina de Oro" (mineof gold) after finding some of the precious metal, though no major gold discoveries were ever made. Missionaries became  active around Ilin Island off the southern tip, Lubang Island off the northern tip,and Mamburao.  Moro  raids later forced them to abandon these places. In 1754, the Muslims established strongholds in Mamburao and Balete (near Sablayan). From there, they launched raids against nearby settlements. An expedition sent by Governor Simon de Anda put an end to these raids.

In the early years, Mindoro was administered as part of Bonbon, now Batangas.Early in the 17th  century, the island was separated from Bonbon and orga- nized into a corregimiento. In 1902 the island of Lubang, which was formerly a part of Cavite, was annexed to Mindoro. In the same year Mindoro and Lubang were annexed to Marinduque when the latter became a regular province. Mindoro became a regular province in 1921. On June 13, 1950, under Republic Act No. 505, Mindoro was divided into two provinces, Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro.

THE PEOPLE

The plains of Occidental Mindoro are inhabited by the Tagalogs and the remote
forested interior by the  Mangyans. Extensive tribal settlements of Mangyans in the province belong to such sub-groups as the Iraya, Alangan, Tadyawan, Buhid, Hanunuo, and Bangon. The Mangyans aresimple people. They were once coastal dwellers driven into the mountains to avoid religious conversion by the Spaniards, raids by Moro pirates, and the influx of recent migrants. They now lead a semi-nomadic existence. Mangyans live in loose clusters of up to 20 bamboo huts with thatched roofs and raised floors. They sometimes are away from their families for many weeks in search of food. Men wear a loincloth of pounded bark while the women have a coil of woven nito, a sturdy black vine, and rattan around their hips. Mangyans practice animism and are superstitious.

COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

Occidental Mindoro is basically an agricultural province. The principal products are rice, coconut, peanut, and abaca. The inhabitants are also engaged in cattle and poultry raising, logging, and fishing. The waters on the west coast comprise one of the most important fishing grounds in the country. Hunting along the banks of the Busuanga River can yield deer, wild boars, and tamaraw.

Mangyan Roots and History

For two decades, Calapan City in Oriental Mindoro has been the venue of one of the country’s most colorful celebrations – the Sanduguan Festival. Every November 15, the main thoroughfares in the city are closed to vehicles to give way to the dancing parade. Various groups of students from different levels re-enact the first barter trade through dance interpretations. They garb themselves in catchy costumes that are made from materials found in their hometown, such as calamansi and bananas. Tourists come in scores to join this yearly event.

Mangyans were the first to inhabit the island of Mindoro. Comprising 10% of the whole Mindoro population, the Mangyans are composed of twelve tribes, each with its own language, culture, and way of life. There are the Iraya, Batangan, Buid, Hanuno'o, Alangan, Ratagnon, Tagaydan (or Tadyawan), Bangon, Pula, Buhid, Nauhan, and Furuan.

For centuries, they lived peacefully along the coastal areas of Oriental Mindoro, where they fished for a living. That was until migrants from nearby islands settled on the island. To avoid disputes, the mild-mannered and peace-loving people gave up their land, moved to the mountains, and came down only for food and other necessities.

Sadly, they have been treated as second class citizens like other indigenous people in the world -- for years often exploited, neglected, and discriminated against by lowlanders. They have experienced being misjudged as uneducated and uncivilized people. They often struggle with poverty. They survive by farming root crops and fruits, which is the only livelihood they know.


A typical Mangyan house


According to hearsay, during the Spanish times, a Spanish ship sank in the oceans near Mindoro. Its passengers mostly Spanish soldiers and some of their families, rowed onto nearby shores and settled.  They discovered that it was inhabited by people the "mangyans."  Some of the soldiers sleep with female native and bore sons and daughters. Thus, their offsprings grew up handsome and beautiful.

In some areas of Mindoro, there are Mangyan community whose people lives a better life in concrete houses, dresses like civilized people in lowlands, owned rice and corn plantation and even have vehicles.



A mangyan mother with her kids


The Mangyans were the only inhabitants of Mindoro before they were driven from the coasts into the mountainous areas by invading Tagalogs. They are a mixture of Austronesians, proto-Malays, Indian settlers and Malays. They once populated the whole island including the coasts. Since 150 years they have by and by been driven to the mountainous areas of the island by invading Tagalog settlers. Today their settlements can be found mainly in central cordillera and in secluded areas of Oriental Mindoro. There are now about 50,000 Mangyans living in Oriental Mindoro. The term Mangyan is a generic name for the diverse groups inhabiting the mountains and foothills. Individually, the groups identify themselves by other names.

"Mangyan" is a collective name of uncertain origin for several tribes of which the main groups are:
ALANGAN  6,000 to 7,000 (1991 SIL). North central Mindoro, around Mt. Halcon
IRAYA 10,000 (1991 OMF). Northern Mindoro from Baco to Mamburao
BUHID (BUKIL, BANGON, BATANGAN) 8,000 . Southern Mindoro
TADYAWAN (PULA, TADIANAN, BALABAN) 2,000 . East central Mindoro
HANUNOO (HANONOO) 10,000 to 12,000. Southern Oriental Mindoro

Some Mangyans in remote areas have conserved their traditional lifestyle - hunting with bows and arrows and gathering food. The majority though practices small-scale and self-supporting agriculture and exchange of products. Tagalog planters employ them for "dirty work" such as cleaning the plantations from unwanted plants or even converting forests into plantations - which contributes to further reduction of their habitats.

The Hanunoo tribe seems to be less affected by influences of the Tagalog speaking population - maybe also because their settlements in  the mountains are located in an area dominated by the New People's Army guerilla.

Their way of living
Most of them rely on planting rice, corn, vegetables and hunting wild animals to support their every day living. A male at age 16 can become a family man if he can build his own house. A house made up of coconut leaves, bamboo, tree for its pillar,  and other materials.

During Christmas season, they go down to lowlands with some of their handicrafts to sell of exchange for anything such as clothes, foods and others.

A mangyan is very much willing and happy to give their live chicken in exchange for a can of sardines. For them, sardines is a very special food.


HANUNUO

Hanuno Mangyans can be found within the territorical jurisdiction of the towns of Mansalay and San Pedro (Bulalacao) along the periphery of Southeastern Mindoro. Their population is approximately 66,132.

Hanuno means "true," "real" or "genuine." According to Conklin, when he asked the what kind of Mangyans they were, the Mangyans' answers to his queries were nothing else but their claim to be true, real and genuine Mangyans. True enough because among the Mangyans they have remained faithful to the traditions of their ancestors.


A traditional Mangyan 'milling machine'


 The Hanunuos are fairly tall in structure, and their bodies are slim and well proportioned. They have oblique eyes, flat nose, prominent cheekbone, flat forehead, and olive skin. Men have their custom of sporting a long braided hair in the upper part of their head with the rest of their hair cut short, if not shaved. Women hang up their hair behind their heads, sometimes held in place by a beaded band, which serves as ornament.They have a small, even set of teeth caused by their common practice of filing their teeth while young.



A mangyan woman weaving cloth in
a 'weaving machine'

Being more stationary than the other Mangyans, their houses are more permanent structures made out of light materials, elevated up to four or five feet from the ground, supported by bamboo posts or sturdy forest lumber and roofed with nipa materials or cogon grass. The whole house is one big room used for sleeping, eating, workroom, etc.

Majority of the Hanuno men still cling to the age-old custom of using the G-string, but those who have intermarried with the lowlanders substituted G-string with short pants. The women cover themselves with a rectangular pieces of the cloth with both and sewn them together which serve as skirt. They both wear an upper garment, a long sleeved, tight-fitting shirt called the balukas for men and lambong for women. For everyday use, they have a short sleeved one that they call subon for both sexes. They us a woven belt called nito and wear beaded band around their necks and arms.

Hanunuo possess a system of writing which is a descendant of the ancientSnaskrit alphabet. In the Mangyans syllabary, there are eighteen characters, three of which are vowels and the other fifteen characters are written combine those vowels. For writing materials, they use the siyaw or a bolo-shaped kinife for inscribing and the bamboo, either split or whole, for paper.
During merrymaking, the musical joust is the participated in both sexes. Gitgit, Kudyapi, Kinaban, all string instruments are usually played by men while those played by women are the lantuy (a bamboo flute), taghup or tanghup (a whistle made out of bamboo). Like the music, the ambahan (a poem of lines of seven syllables) has found its place as a tool for courting women.

Social life among the Hanunuos revolves around the family. Mangyan girls marry at an early age. During courtship, a young man convinces the girl of his intention through the use of ambahan. In between the recitations, he plays his subing, a three-star guitar. Marriage plans are done by both parents including the dowry. The actual wedding is short, the greater part consists of admonitions, and advises dispensed by a magdadniw a kind of minister.

Relation of the individual to the community is one dominated by the spirit of cooperation and togetherness. They have no written laws. Their elders verbally in the form of counsel or advice have handed down whatever they have in the form of laws to them. In some cases, when troubles arise, the disputants settle their differences in the presence of an elder, the judge who decides the matter. Justice is then meted out to the offended parties. Different offenses are given different punishment.

Hanunuos have two burial occasions. The first takes place soon after death. The second after a year or two years when the bones have to be exhumed. They believe in a Supreme Being called Maha na Makaako who watches over them and love them. They also believe that their Supreme Being has a son called Presidents who executes his father's command. They also believe in evil spirits and in immortality.

IRAYA
The term iraya is said to mean "man" or "human being." The Iraya are the Mangyans of Mindoro who occupy the northwestern part of Mindoro Island. The estimated population of the Iraya-Mangyan is 10, 689 distributed around 141 settlements in the Municipalities of Abra de Ilog, Mamburao and Paluan.

According to the Iraya customs and traditions, the family is considered as the basic unit of production and consumption. Their kindred system is traced to both the father and mother's links which their system refer to us guruan. The nuclear family is referred to us talnakan wherein their already exists a social order. The eldest takes the place of the parents during their absence and is one considered the second parent. He/She is likewise considered the intermediar between the parents and the younger siblings.


A Mangyan wearing a G-string and a t-shirt.

Among the Iraya, leadership is provided by the puon-balayan, in the local group referred to as sanguraan composed of closely related families. Moral and legal problems are referred to the puon-balayan for decision. Any criminal act or offense done is corrected with the use of either the pangaw or tige. Pangaw is the Iraya's version of the detention cell. Tige on the other hand is a punishment wherein the suspects of a particular offense are called and are ordered to immerse their right hand in a pot of boiling water to pick up the white stone at the bottom of the pot. Anyone of the susupects whose right hand gets burned is considered to be the guilty party. It is believed that the innocent parties will not get burned in this particular test because Apo Iraya will protect them from harm.

RATAGNON
The Ratagnon who are sometimes called the Latagnon or Datagnon occupy the southernmost tip of the Mindoro Island facing the Sulu Sea. The Ratagnon of the Occidental Mindoro has an estimated population of 17, 562 scattered in around 200 Ratagnon settlements

Like all the other Mangyan communities, the Ratagnon are engaged in swidden agriculture. Their villages are not formally developed and settlements of four to five houses per settlements are located apart from each other. A typical Ratagnon house is made of indigenous materials - mostly of wood, bamboo, and nipa.

Some of the male members of the Ratagnon community still wear their traditional dress which consists of a loincloth as a lower garment. The women wear woven cotton used as wrap-around matched with an upper garment made of handwoven nito just enough to cover the breasts.

Heat Vs. Lakers, NBA Christmas Day: LeBron James Has A Triple Double As Miami Routs Los Angeles 96-80

The Miami Heat needed to make a statement that they could compete against the NBA's best teams. They did just that in the NBA's Christmas Day headliner, routing the Los Angeles Lakers 96-80 at the Staples Center.

LeBron James led the way for the Heat with a historic performance, scoring 27 points, grabbed 11 rebounds and picked up 10 assists. It's the first time a player has ever posted a triple-double on Christmas, according to research done by ESPN's Tom Haberstroh dating back to the 1986/87 season. James scored 16 of his points in the second half as Miami pulled away in the third quarter for the win.

Chris Bosh added 24 points for the Heat, while Dwyane Wade chipped in with 18 despite a sore left knee. Mario Chalmers also provided a lift off the bench, scoring 13 points while hitting three three-pointers.

The Lakers had a rough time all game scoring the ball. They hit just 40 percent of their field-goal attempts and never got into a rhythm offensively. Kobe Bryant had just 17 points on 6-16 shooting, as Wade got him out of his comfort zone. Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom had 17 and 14, respectively, but none of the other players had good games.

It's worth noting that the Lakers were also blown out on Christmas Day last year by James' Cavaliers, so it's too early to suggest the sky is falling. Really, this win is more about Miami and the way they are beginning to emerge as the team we all thought they would be.

BSP to issue peso bills with new designs by December

By December of this year, we could be having new designs on our peso bills. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) would begin circulating by December the new peso bills, while coins will follow suit after two years.

According to the BSP, aside from having new designs, the new bills and coins will also have new security features which would make it easier to detect counterfeit money.

BSP in its primer said, “As a matter of practice, central banks regularly change the designs of their money – whether coins or banknotes – to guard against counterfeiter. By making it very difficult and costly for counterfeiters to produce exact copies of our money, we protect the integrity of our currency against criminals.”

The peso bills, from the 20-peso to the 1,000-peso, and coins from the one-centavo to the 10-peso, are all up for a facelift. Once the new designs have begun circulating, BSP said the existing peso bills would remain valid and legal tender in the next three years, after which they will be phased out.

“Based on previous currency retirement or demonization program of the BSP, this will give enough time for the public to make a full transition to our new generation currency,” BSP said, adding that there would be a separate schedule for the coins.

DOTA: AMUSEMENT OR ADDICTION?

Defense Of The Ancients or more commonly known as DOTA is a map of the game Warcraft III: Frozen Throne. It has gained international fame among young people. But is it more than just a map? Is it more than just a game for weekends? Or is it something more?

Ah, Dota. What a soothing sound to my young ears. Whenever I hear this word, the first thing that comes to my mind is to kill more and more heroes as many times as I can and not to get killed in the process.

As I realized what I was thinking, I immediately realized that my attention was focused on killing and defending, which is not the real me. I stopped to think for a moment. If I was entranced in the killing part of the game, how much more the other youth around the world! The game may be fun, but it may also have effects on our attitude and the way we handle with our problems

In the Philippines, I usually go out with my friends to the Internet cafe, and I notice that almost every computer user was playing the same game, Dota. Here’s one effect that comes along: Addiction.

Addiction is described in the Wikipedia as an obsession, compulsion, or excessive physical dependence or psychological dependence, such as: drug addiction, video game addiction, crime, alcoholism, compulsive overeating, problem gambling, computer addiction, pornography addiction, etc. I guess we can add another example of addiction: DOTA Addiction

I go around and think, “Nah. Dota won’t have any effects on my attitude or the attitude of any person, it’s just a game, isn’t it?” I was corrected by my own words, as all around me, I saw EVERYONE who was playing Dota was screaming and insulting and blaming others for not assisting them kill the hero and blah, blah, blah, blah. Again, I realized that there’s more to Dota than just a fun, thrilling game. And I have seen through my own eyes, how this game has brought change to the youth today. And I certainly won’t want to see myself shouting like a monkey without a cause inside the Internet cafe.

Now, I’m not saying that this game should be banned from our computers. All I’m saying is that we should try to moderate and control our time in playing because who knows if one day in the future you will also be acting the same way as the “DOTA Addicts” or the “Screamers” do.